Assessing the Risk and Return of Financial Trading Systems - a Large Deviation Approach
Abstract
We apply large deviation theory to assess the probability that a trading system performs below or above a certain threshold. Our technique does not require that the distribution of the performance criterion obeys a closed-form equation, and can accept as input empirical distributions given under the form of frequency histograms obtained by backtesting or from prior use of the trading system. A nice property of the technique is that it can be easily automated and integrated into a trading platform. Furthermore, the approach is not limited to a single trading system but can be applied on portfolio of trading systems.
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