Optimal Design of Physical and Numerical Experiments for Computer Code Calibration
Résumé
We address the problem of Bayesian calibration of an expensive computer code assumed without
model discrepancy. In a calibration process with costly measurement acquisition and high computing
time of the computer code, the estimation accuracy and cost mitigation must guide the selection of
the design of physical experiments and of numerical experiments. To this end, we propose a hybrid
approach to select both designs of physical and numerical experiments with the aim to approximate
the posterior density of calibration parameters. We first build an initial Gaussian process emulator
which we use to calculate an optimal physical experimental design criterion. Then, after selecting
the physical experimental design, we combine physical observations with available computer code
evaluations to sequentially add new points to the design of numerical experiments in order to improve
the Gaussian process emulator for the calibration purpose. We introduce three new criteria for selecting
the design of physical experiments based on posterior density or computer code variation and two
new criteria for selecting the design of numerical experiments inspired by the Sequential Uncertainty
Reduction (SUR) paradigm. A performance analysis and comparison with state-of-the-art methods is
proposed for two test cases and a more realistic one involving the calibration of a harmonic oscillator.
Keywords: Bayesian calibration, design of physical experiments, design of numerical experiments,
Gaussian process emulator, information matrix, Kullback-Leibler divergence, history matching,
stepwise uncertainty Reduction, simulated annealing.
Mots clés
Bayesian calibration design of physical experiments design of numerical experiments Gaussian process emulator information matrix Kullback-Leibler divergence history matching stepwise uncertainty Reduction simulated annealing
Bayesian calibration
design of physical experiments
design of numerical experiments
Gaussian process emulator
information matrix
Kullback-Leibler divergence
history matching
stepwise uncertainty Reduction
simulated annealing
Domaines
Statistiques [stat]Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
---|