On interval prediction of COVID-19 development based on a SEIR epidemic model
Résumé
In this brief report, a modified version of the wellknown mathematical epidemic model SEIR is used to analyze the epidemics course of COVID-19 in five different countries in the world. To this goal, the parameters of the SEIR model are identified by using publicly available data for the corresponding countries: France, Italy, Spain, Brazil and Russia. The identified model is then applied for the prediction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus propagation under different conditions of confinement. For this purpose, an interval predictor is designed allowing variations and uncertainties in the model parameters to be taken into account.
Domaines
Automatique / RobotiqueOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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