Estimation of extreme quantiles of heavy-tailed distributions in a location-dispersion regression model
Résumé
We consider a location-dispersion regression model for heavy-tailed distributions when the multidimensional covariate is deterministic. In a first step, nonparametric estimators of the regression and precision functions are introduced. This permits, in a second step, to derive an estimator of the conditional extreme-value index computed on the residuals. Finally, a plug-in estimator of extreme conditional quantiles is built using these two preliminary steps. It is shown that the resulting semi-parametric estimator is asymptotically Gaussian and benefits from the same rate of convergence as in the unconditional situation. Its finite sample properties are illustrated both on simulated and real data.
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