We reconsider the problem of containment of monadic datalog (MDL) queries in unions of conjunctive queries (UCQs). Prior work has dealt with special cases of the problem, but has left the precise complexity characterization open. In addition, the complexity of one important special case, that of containment under access patterns, was not known before. We start by revisiting the connection between MDL/UCQ containment and containment problems involving regular tree languages. We then present a general approach for getting tighter bounds on the complexity of query containment, based on analysis of the number of mappings of queries into tree-like instances. We give two applications of the machinery. We first give an important special case of the MDL/UCQ containment problem that is in EXPTIME, and use this bound to show an EXPTIME bound on containment under access patterns. Secondly we show that the same technique can be used to get a new tight upper bound for containment of tree automata in UCQs. We finally show that the new MDL/UCQ upper bounds are tight. We establish a 2EXPTIME lower bound on the MDL/UCQ containment problem, resolving an open problem from the early 1990s. This bound holds for the MDL/CQ containment problem as well. We also show that changes to the conditions given in our special cases can not be eliminated, and that in particular slight variations of the problem of containment under access patterns become 2EXPTIME-complete.