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Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year : 2021

Understanding routine impact on the predictability estimation of human mobility


Given the difficulties in predicting human behavior, one may wish to establish bounds on our ability to accurately perform such predictions. In the case of mobility-related behavior, there exists a fundamental technique to estimate the predictability of an individual's mobility, as expressed in a given dataset. Although useful in several scenarios, this technique focused on human mobility as a monolithic entity, which poses challenges to understanding different types of behavior that may be hard to predict. In this paper, we propose to view human mobility as consisting of two components, routine and novelty, with distinct properties. This alternative view of one's mobility allows us to identify unpredictable behavior in each of these components. Additionally, we argue that unpredictable behavior in the novelty component is hard to predict, and we here focus on analyzing what affects the predictability of one's routine. To that end, we propose a technique that allows us to (i) quantify the effect of novelty on predictability, and (ii) gauge how much one's routine deviates from a reference routine that is completely predictable, therefore estimating the amount of unpredictable behavior in one's routine. Finally, we rely on previously proposed metrics, as well as a newly proposed one, to understand what affects the predictability of a person's routine. Our experiments show that our metrics are able to capture most of the variability in one's routine (adjusted R 2 of up to 84.9% and 96.0% on a GPS and CDR datasets, respectively), and that routine behavior can be largely explained by three types of patterns: (i) stationary patterns, in which a person stays in her current location for a given time period, (ii) regular visits, in which people visit a few preferred locations with occasional visits to other places, and (iii) diversity of trajectories, in which people change the order in which they visit certain locations.
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hal-03128624 , version 1 (02-02-2021)


  • HAL Id : hal-03128624 , version 1


Douglas Teixeira, Jussara M Almeida, Aline Carneiro Viana. Understanding routine impact on the predictability estimation of human mobility. 2021. ⟨hal-03128624⟩
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