The reliability of a fixed wireless backhaul network is the probability that the network can meet all the communication requirements considering the uncertainty (e.g., due to weather) in the maximum capacity of each link. We provide an algorithm to compute the exact reliability of a backhaul network, given a discrete probability distribution on the possible capacities available at each link. The algorithm computes a conditional probability tree, where at each leaf in the tree a valid routing for the network is evaluated. Any such tree provides bounds on the reliability, and the algorithm improves these bounds by branching in the tree. We also consider the problem of determining the topology and configuration of a backhaul network that maximizes reliability subject to a limited budget. We provide an algorithm that exploits properties of the conditional probability tree used to calculate reliability of a given network design, and we evaluate its computational efficiency.